ORIE Colloquium

Sumanta BasuCornell University
Network modeling of high-dimensional time series with applications to system-wide risk monitoring

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 - 4:15pm
Rhodes 253

Measuring connectedness among financial institutions is central in many aspects of financial economics, including system-wide risk monitoring and identifying systemically risky institutions. In this work, we present a unified framework for measuring connectivity among firms or asset classes from multivariate time series data. The proposed framework relies on regularized estimation of high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VAR), is flexible enough to incorporate grouping and latent structures among firms, allows parallel implementation for large data sets and enjoys strong statistical guarantees under high-dimensional scaling. We apply our method to analyze connectivity among stock returns of leading financial firms in the U.S. before, during and after the financial crisis of 2007-2008, and demonstrate promising results in detecting important systemic events and systemically risky institutions.